Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Is Kirkuk that cheap?

Kirkuk, which has been desperate for cash for so long, has finally received what seems to be a first tranche of petrodollars from the KRG. Kirkuk's oilfields (namely Avana and Bai Hassan) have been contributing roughly half of the oil the KRG has been exporting independently since the collapse of the oil/budget deal with Baghdad last summer.

Obviously there's a lot more to the ties between the KRG and Kirkuk than just cash, but my first reaction is:

1) Kirkuk is massively underselling itself!

2) Did Baghdad really fail to make a more appealing bid?

3) Or is it that Baghdad didn't want to throw good money after bad? (Not that Baghdad had invested much in Kirkuk between 2003 and 2014)

4) If # 3 is the case, then perhaps Kirkuk felt it had no choice but to accept whatever the KRG was willing to offer, which is next to nothing. A mere $10 million for 200,000 or 250,000 bpd is insane.

5) If #3 and #4 reflect what actually happened, then Kirkuk must be resenting the deal already and will be/is searching for a better one.

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