Prime Minister Abadi Initiates Promising Cabinet Overhaul

PM Abadi presented his choices for a new cabinet formation before parliament today. Here are my initial thoughts on what I think is a very positive development:

--Abadi showed that he can act decisively and meet deadlines. He did not get bogged down in the bickering of political parties.

--Abadi showed toughness and succeeded in absorbing great pressures from multiple parties, including threats by Sadr to storm the green Zone and uproot the government. Moqtada responded rather positively by ordering his followers to end their sit-in, which is welcome deescalation of the tensions of recent weeks.

--Sherif Ali bin Hussien, a Sunni Arab related to Iraq's former monarchs, is a good choice for foreign ministry. Sophisticated and respected. Giving him the foreign ministry will be good for repairing Iraq’s connections with the Arab world.

--Ali Allawi is an excellent choice for finance and planning. Intelligent and thoughtful. Merging these two portfolios can consolidate and streamline planning and execution of budgets. Having a clean minister at the top promises to control corruption and inefficiency. 

--The fact that many of the other candidates don't sound familiar is generally a good sign in Iraq!

Abadi buys time with promise to change 9 ministers

Sources in PM Abadi's bloc said today that he will nominate 9 technocrats on Saturday as his candidates to fill ministerial portfolios in his promised cabinet reshuffle.

Moqtada Sadr, who had set a 45 day deadline that expires Monday for Abadi to reform his cabinet or face removal, seems to be satisfied by the news, at least for now. Sadr called the announcement “brave” and urged the PM to implement his cabinet reshuffle in no more than 2 stages, “without appeasement or fear from parties covering up for the corrupt in their midst.”

I wouldn't call it crisis averted, yet. It's still not clear if the announcement actually holds water. So far there's no direct statement form Abadi or his spokesperson. Also, as of yesterday, the major parties were still dragging their feet on nominating replacements for their to be ousted ministers. 

If today's announcement came without Abadi receiving nominations from the parties then there's a good chance that no names will be presented on Saturday. And if Abadi actually ends up presenting 9 names on Saturday that were not nominated by their parties, then getting a confirmation vote in Parliament will be quite a feat.

The threat of Moqtada al-Sadr grows

The news reporting on relations between Sadr and Abadi can be quite misleading. The headline at Reuters today reads "Iraq's al-Sadr supporters back PM's move for non-partisan cabinet to fight graft"

But taking these words at face value would be a mistake. Sadr is bullying Abadi rather than supporting him. He has given him 45 days to implement cabinet changes that would place in office candidates who are selected by Sadr and his aides. Sadr has publicly threatened to uproot the government and have his followers storm the Green Zone if Abadi did not comply.

In what world does this qualify as support?

ISIS attacks Iraqi army base near Makhmour

I warned on Twitter a few weeks ago that ISIS will likely strike at the Iraqi Army camp near Makhmour to try and disrupt the force buildup before the Iraqis are ready to commence offensive operations.

Well, today this happened. Th news says that "Four Iraqi soldiers were killed and at least 23 others wounded," when ISIS attacked the base Thursday morning.

ISIS reportedly used Katyusha rockets in the attack. And now the enemy artillerymen have a pretty good idea of where to aim in order to make the next salvo land where it hurts

If this hasn't been done already, the Makhmour base should be given sufficient ISR capabilities to detect ISIS activity in plausible launch sites and prevent similar, or worse attacks in the future. The base and troops are too important for the Mosul battle-and indeed the entire campaign-to leave unprotected.