Can governor Nasrawi restore security in Basra?

Security and rule of law have been deteriorating across central and southern provinces as militias and criminal gangs exploit the vacuum left by security forces deployed north and west to fight ISIS. Things have been particularly nasty in Basra, where there's more power and resources for which various actors can compete. People of Basra have been protesting the lack of security as assassinations, kidnappings and other forms of organized and petty crime arguably reached or even exceeded pre-charge of the knights levels.

Governor Nasrawi now claims he's determined to get things under control again. Yesterday he said security forces arrested 731 people connected to criminal activity in "the past days." It's somewhat interesting that he mentioned the Suqor intelligence cell was involved in carrying out the arrests. I used to think the Suqor cell was focused on hunting down ISIS leaders and operated on a national level.

Nasrawi, in his comments on the arrests, was not shy to point out the source of Basra's problems: "Among those arrested are elements affiliated with political parties...we will not allow interference by any political party of politician to mediate" the release of the suspects.

Could the Suqor involvement, along with large number of arrests suggest that a serious effort with significant support from Abadi is underway? But of course there's also the possibility that the governor is exaggerating his efforts to placate the frustrated public. Tracking security dynamics in Iraq for a long time can make you a bit cynical.

Proposed National Guard for Sunni provinces shrinks to 40,000. So what?

Reports this week indicate that the Sunni Arabs' share of of the National Guard will be 40,000 out of a total force of 150,000. This is perhaps the third time the number has been reduced. I recall a few months ago the numbers floated were around 50,000 Sunni Arabs out of total of 120,000 (the other 70,000 being allocated to Shia provinces). Going back to September 2014, the original idea was to create a local paramilitary force through which Sunni provinces can take charge of their own security. A Shia component did not exist in the original concept because Shia provinces did not have a security crisis.

It's been a thorny issue, and Parliament has not managed to pass a national guard law. Translating the idea into practice has faced great opposition by Shia hardliners in Baghdad who probably view the idea of giving Sunni Arabs a role in security as rewarding untrustworthy actors for bad behavior. However, the government, with a lot of prodding from the US, has allowed the arming and training of some thousands of Sunni tribal fighters. Some of those took part in the retaking of Tikrit back in April. And reportedly five battalions of Anbaris are preparing to hold ground retaken by the Iraqi army in the ongoing battle for Ramadi.

Sunni negotiators are said to be satisfied by the 40,000 figure agreed to with PM Abadi. But many questions arise: Do these negotiators speak for the majority of Sunni Arabs? Will 40,000 enough to provide a sufficient force to augment the Iraqi army in retaking Mosul? More importantly, will this deal be enough to give Sunni Arabs the reassurance they've been seeking?

The list can go on, but perhaps the most important question is this: What needs to be done to soften the Shia hardliners' (and Iran's) opposition to allow a meaningful National Guard to happen?

Turkey acknowledges "miscommunication" in troops deployment

So after all the unnecessary bickering Turkey now acknowledged there was miscommunication with Baghdad over the deployment of Turkish troops near Mosul. It somewhat makes Erdogan look silly after he said, not two weeks ago, that pulling the troops was "out of the question."

ISIS Zeppelin?

So supposedly ISIS balloon launched some sort of balloon over southern Mosul yesterday. Locals report that the balloon went down in explosion a few minutes after its launch. It's not clear whether the explosives were on board the vessel or if it was targeted by an Iraqi or coalition aircraft. Curious stuff! 

Sistani-backed PMUs recruiting Sunnis in Nukhaib

Interesting cross-sectarian dynamics along the Karbala-Anbar frontier. The Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) that are under the auspices of Ayatollah Sistani (aka the Abbas Division) says they've recruited Anbari men to form a local battalion in the town of Nukhaib. The recruits are said to be Sunni tribesmen who fled the ISIS rampage and sought refuge in the desert town straddling the Anbar-Karbala border. Arming and equipping will reportedly be coordinated with the Defense Ministry.

While an ideal solution would have the government bring these men into the army or state-sanctioned national guard (a dead project, thanks to Maliki and Iran), this is still a positive thing. It's better to have the more benevolent branch of PMU welcome and integrate Sunni tribesmen than have the government ignore them (whether by malice or incompetence) or the IRGC-backed militias mistreat them.

This is a promising example of trust-building measures.

Looks like Hawijah will be next

There's news today that new military reinforcements are being sent to the region east of Tikrit to prepare for an operation to retake the town of Hawijah. The reinforcements is supposedly a mix of army troops (5th and 10th divisions), federal police, counterterrorism service. The mix also involves volunteers from "Kirkuk Arabs", which would indicate Sunni tribes, instead of Shia militias. The decision to not include Shia militias, if true, is prudent given Hawijah's profile and symbolism. The town was the site of a deadly police crackdown against then peaceful protests (back in April 2013 when Maliki was in power). That incident no doubt exacerbated Iraq's domestic strife and accelerated the rise of ISIS the following year.

Done well, an operation to clear Hawijah would drastically degrade ISIS ability to operate in Diyala, counterattack in northern Salahaddin, or launch attacks against Kirkuk city. Taking Hawijah would probably be the final major shaping operation needed before Iraqi forces can plan a major push toward Sharqat and ultimately Mosul.

That said, the timing is interesting because the Iraqi forces are already busy fighting in Ramadi. Does this mean Baghdad feels confident assaulting two major ISIS strongholds simultaneously? Or could this be a feint meant to stretch ISIS forces thin?

Hymn to Ninkasi

I was reminded at a homebrewers event the other day that the 2016 National Homebrew Competition is approaching. I’ve never competed before but I’m contemplating making a foray this year. I went to the competition website to familiarize myself with the process and found out that the highest honor a winner can get is called the Ninkasi Award. Who’s Ninkasi? She is the Sumerian goddess of brewing and the daughter of the king of Uruk.  

To me this invokes mixed feelings. On the one hand I find it very fitting that this prestigious award is named after the character to whom the first ever written beer recipe was dedicated. 

But on the other hand it is also ironic that while American brewers hold the Ninkasi’s name in such reverence, she is barely known in today’s Mesopotamia. In fact, I had never heard of her until a few years ago when a friend recommended I read a book called "The History of the World in 6 Glasses," which described the delicious and intimate relationship ancient Mesopotamians had with their brews. It is also sad that it is fairly reasonable to assume that if Ninkasi were to show up in her hometown, near today’s Samawa, and try to catch up where she left off she would probably be chased down by an angry mob.

Iraqis today need a lot of things: reconciliation and power-sharing, security assistance, trainers and advisers, airstrikes, higher oil prices, you name it…but above all, they can all use a pint or three. Cheers!

A Date with Ninkasi. Stout brewed with pale and roasted malt, flaked oats, and Iraqi dates syrup. 

Hymn to Ninkasi

Borne of the flowing water,

Tenderly cared for by the Ninhursag,

Borne of the flowing water,

Tenderly cared for by the Ninhursag,

Having founded your town by the sacred lake,

She finished its great walls for you,

Ninkasi, having founded your town by the sacred lake,

She finished it's walls for you,

Your father is Enki, Lord Nidimmud,

Your mother is Ninti, the queen of the sacred lake.

Ninkasi, your father is Enki, Lord Nidimmud,

Your mother is Ninti, the queen of the sacred lake.

You are the one who handles the dough [and] with a big shovel,

Mixing in a pit, the bappir with sweet aromatics,

Ninkasi, you are the one who handles the dough [and] with a big shovel,

Mixing in a pit, the bappir with [date] - honey,

You are the one who bakes the bappir in the big oven,

Puts in order the piles of hulled grains,

Ninkasi, you are the one who bakes the bappir in the big oven,

Puts in order the piles of hulled grains,

You are the one who waters the malt set on the ground,

The noble dogs keep away even the potentates,

Ninkasi, you are the one who waters the malt set on the ground,

The noble dogs keep away even the potentates,

You are the one who soaks the malt in a jar,

The waves rise, the waves fall.

Ninkasi, you are the one who soaks the malt in a jar,

The waves rise, the waves fall.

You are the one who spreads the cooked mash on large reed mats,

Coolness overcomes,

Ninkasi, you are the one who spreads the cooked mash on large reed mats,

Coolness overcomes,

You are the one who holds with both hands the great sweet wort,

Brewing [it] with honey [and] wine

(You the sweet wort to the vessel)

Ninkasi, (...)(You the sweet wort to the vessel)

The filtering vat, which makes a pleasant sound,

You place appropriately on a large collector vat.

Ninkasi, the filtering vat, which makes a pleasant sound,

You place appropriately on a large collector vat.

When you pour out the filtered beer of the collector vat,

It is [like] the onrush of Tigris and Euphrates.

Ninkasi, you are the one who pours out the filtered beer of the collector vat,

It is [like] the onrush of Tigris and Euphrates.

Images from Anbar Operations HQ (and can we find out how these plates got there?)

ISF progress in Ramadi continued today. An Iraqi Air Force page on Facebook posted some photos from Ramadi after Iraqi troops from the Army and Counter Terrorism Service recaptured the former HQ of the Anbar Operations Command. As often happens, soldiers found vehicles with plates issued in neighboring countries. This time the plates came from Saudi Arabia. I wonder what kind of cooperation, if any, exists between Iraq and the neighbors in tracking down those involved in purchasing and smuggling these vehicles (or making fake plates). If I were a Saudi security official I would pick up the phone and talk to the Iraqis right away. Even if neighbors don't get along very well you'd expect a country to be interested in figuring out who's doing this kind of stuff.

ISF making significant progress in Ramadi

When I told a fellow analyst in August that Ramadi could be retaken from ISIS by the end of the year the skepticism on his face was quite visible. Accelerating gains on the ground lately have made the prospects for kicking ISIS out of the provincial capital of Anbar within the next few weeks seem reasonably strong. (Note to self: next time put money on it)  

Seriously though, it seems like this is more or less the first time that ISIS is on the defensive/lost momentum on all major fronts across the Iraqi theater: Diyala, Himrin, Kirkuk, Baiji, Makhmour/Gwer, Sinjar, and Ramadi.

Turkey sends troops into northern Iraq

What a day to start blogging again after a 4-year hiatus! As I type these words a new crisis is brewing between Iraq and Turkey. Ankara has deployed a contingent of troops, with enough tanks and APCs to equip a mechanized battalion, to the area of Ba'sheiqa near Mosul. The purpose, according to Turkey, is to fulfill prior agreements with Iraq to train local forces on the front line between Iraq's autonomous Kurdish Region and ISIS-held Mosul. The problem is, the government in Baghdad says there are no such agreements and demanded (on Monday) Turkish withdrawal within 48 hours. The fact that Turkey chose to ignore Baghdad's demand suggests the claim of a prior agreement is questionable. Meanwhile Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi met with his generals and asked the nascent Iraqi air force to be prepared to defend Iraq's borders. The deadline expires in just under 4 hours.

Iraq won't/can't use force against the deployed Turkish troops, but this episode will nonetheless put additional strain on relations and further polarize the region. Baghdad will look weaker and Ankara will look more thuggish. This does not set a good example for regional cooperation against ISIS. What does Turkey really want?